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VOA Russian spoke with U.S. officials, politicians and experts to see how U.S. relations with China and Russia could change under the incoming Donald Trump administration. Experts say Beijing may be worried about Trump’s plans for the swift end of the war in Ukraine, while North Korea’s involvement in the war could become a lightning rod in China-Russia relations. Click here for the full story in Russian. …

VOA Russian speaks to aviation expert Konstantin Kryvolap, who takes apart Moscow’s official versions of the crash of the Russia-bound Azerbaijan Airlines plane in Kazakhstan and says a Russian missile was the only viable cause. Kryvolap says as soon as the first photos and videos from the crash site started to trickle in, this became obvious, taking into account the shrapnel damage on the plane fuselage. Click here for the full story in Russian. …

WASHINGTON — The Biden administration has imposed sanctions on the founder of Georgia’s ruling political party, which has steered the country away from a pro-Western stance and toward Russia, U.S. officials said Friday. The State and Treasury departments said they hit Georgian Dream party founder and honorary chair Bidzina Ivanishvili with penalties “for undermining the democratic and Euro-Atlantic future of Georgia for the benefit of the Russian Federation,” according to a statement. The designation of Ivanishvili is the latest in a series of sanctions the United States has slapped on Georgian politicians, lawmakers and others this year. The sanctions include freezes on assets and properties that those targeted may have in U.S. jurisdictions or that might enter U.S. jurisdictions as well as travel bans on the targets and members of their families. “We strongly condemn Georgian Dream’s actions under Ivanishvili’s leadership, including its ongoing and violent repression of Georgian citizens, protestors, members of the media, human rights activists, and opposition figures,” the State Department said in a statement. “The United States is committed to promoting accountability for those undermining democracy and human rights in Georgia.” Ivanishvili is a shadowy billionaire who made his fortune in Russia and served briefly as Georgia’s prime minister. In 2012, he founded Georgian Dream, the longtime ruling party. Critics have accused Georgian Dream of becoming increasingly authoritarian and tilted toward Moscow. The party recently pushed through laws like those used by the Kremlin to crack down on freedom of speech and LGBTQ+ rights, prompting the European Union to suspend Georgia’s membership application process indefinitely. In October, Georgian Dream won another term in a divisive parliamentary election that has led to more mass protests. Last month, the country’s prime minister, Irakli Kobakhidze, announced a four-year suspension of talks on Georgia’s bid to join the European Union, fueling further public outrage. …

ZAGREB, CROATIA — Croatia’s left-leaning president, an outspoken critic of Western military support for Ukraine in its war against Russia, is running for reelection this weekend against an array of contenders, including the candidate backed by the conservative government. President Zoran Milanovic is seen as a favorite ahead of Sunday’s presidential election, although he is unlikely to score an outright victory. If none of the eight contenders gain more than half of the ballots cast in the first round, a runoff between the top two will be held on Jan. 12. The most popular politician in Croatia, 58-year-old Milanovic served as prime minister in the past. Populist in style, Milanovic has been a fierce critic of current Prime Minister Andrej Plenkovic. The continuous sparring between the two has lately marked Croatia’s political scene. Ahead of Sunday’s vote, Plenkovic’s Hrvatska Democratska Zajednica party, or Croatian Democratic Union party, has backed pediatrician and university professor Dragan Primorac for the presidency. Primorac has sought to portray himself as a unifier and Milanovic as divisive. Although the presidency is largely ceremonial in Croatia, an elected president holds political authority and acts as the supreme commander of the military. Milanovic has criticized the European Union’s support for Ukraine and has often insisted that Croatia should not take sides. He has said Croatia should stay away from global disputes, although it is a member of NATO and the EU. Milanovic has also blocked Croatia’s participation in a NATO-led training mission for Ukraine, declaring that “No Croatian soldier will take part in somebody else’s war.” His main rival in the election, Primorac, has stated that “Croatia’s place is in the West, not the East.” His presidency bid, however, has been marred by a high-level corruption case that landed Croatia’s health minister in jail last month and which featured prominently in pre-election debates. Political expert Andjelko Milardovic said Milanovic’s reelection would be good for democracy in Croatia because the ruling party holds a tight grip over all other government institutions. “We are interested to see a balance and control of power,” said Milardovic. Milanovic is backed by center-left Social Democrats, the biggest opposition party. Some analysts believe that Marija Selak Raspudic, a conservative independent candidate polling third in pre-election surveys, could stand a better chance against Milanovic if she somehow makes it to the runoff. Selak Raspudic was close to a right-wing party in the past but now runs … “Croatia’s president seeks reelection, faces several contenders in Sunday’s vote” →

BELGRADE, SERBIA — Serbian university students left piles of old schoolbooks outside the Education Ministry building Friday as part of almost daily street protests demanding accountability over the collapse nearly two months ago of a concrete canopy that killed 15 people in the country’s north. Scattered traffic blockades were also held on various locations throughout Serbia at 11:52 a.m. — the time that the concrete construction on the front of the railway station building in Novi Sad crashed onto the people below. Traffic blockades have been held every Friday since the Nov. 1 crash, lasting 15 minutes for the 15 victims. Many in Serbia blame the collapse on widespread corruption and sloppy work on the railway station building in the city of Novi Sad, which was twice renovated in recent years as part of questionable mega projects involving Chinese state companies. Persistent protests in Serbia reflect widespread anger at the accident but also wider discontent with the rule of populist President Aleksandar Vucic and his government. Tens of thousands of people joined a rally Sunday in Belgrade led by the university students. Prosecutors arrested 13 people over the Novi Sad tragedy, including a government minister whose release later fueled public skepticism about the honesty of the investigation. Striking university students have garnered support from various walks of life, challenging the tight grip on power by Vucic’s government. The movement’s symbol — a red handprint telling authorities they have blood on their hands — has been used by actors, farmers and others backing the protests. In Belgrade, more than 2,000 students marched to the Education Ministry. A speaker told the crowd that “we are sick of being called political mercenaries and attacked in the streets.” In Novi Sad, a student rally criticized the way the state-run RT Vojvodina reports about the protests and the canopy collapse. Populist officials and the pro-government mainstream media have described the protests as a “hybrid war” against Vucic under the orders of foreign intelligence services. Though Serbia is formally seeking European Union membership, Vucic has faced accusations of curbing democratic freedoms rather than advancing them. University students in neighboring Bosnia’s capital, Sarajevo, and the northwestern town of Banja Luka on Friday gathered in support of their Serbian colleagues and to draw attention to problems in their own country. …

North Korean forces are experiencing mass casualties on the front lines of Russia’s war against Ukraine, with a thousand of their troops killed or injured in the last week alone in Russia’s Kursk region, the White House said Friday.   “It is clear that Russian and North Korean military leaders are treating these troops as expendable and ordering them on hopeless assaults against Ukrainian defenses,” White House National Security Communications Adviser John Kirby told reporters.   Kirby characterized the North Korean troops’ offensive as “massed, dismounted assaults.”  The national security communications adviser also said President Joe Biden is likely to approve another security assistance package for Ukraine in the coming days.  Meanwhile, Slovakia on Friday confirmed its readiness to host peace talks aimed at ending the war between Russia and Ukraine.    On Thursday, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that Moscow is open to a Slovak proposal to host peace talks with Ukraine, which Russia invaded in February of 2022.    “We offer Slovak soil for such negotiations,” Slovak Foreign Minister Juraj Blanar said on Facebook.   Blanar also said any talks must take place with all parties participating, including Russia. Russian officials were not present for previous talks in June in Switzerland.   “We consider the statement of the Russian president as a positive signal to end this war, this bloodshed and this destruction as soon as possible,” Blanar said.   The foreign minister said Slovakia, a European Union and NATO member, told Ukraine in October about its availability to host peace talks.    Slovakia’s Prime Minister Robert Fico is one of just a few European leaders who have remained close with Moscow. He prompted an angry reaction from Ukraine when he met with Putin in Moscow on Dec. 22.   Fico also has halted all Slovakian military aid to Ukraine, and he has accused Ukraine of threatening Slovakia’s supply of Russian gas.    Also on Friday, the Ukrainian air force said its air defense shot down 13 of 24 Russian drones launched in an overnight attack.   The air force said the other 11 Russian drones were “lost” without causing damage.  U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken spoke Friday with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha to discuss battlefield updates and U.S. support for Ukraine amid the war, the State Department said.   “The Secretary reiterated unwavering U.S. support for Ukrainians in defense of their freedom,” State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said in a statement Friday.   That comes as Russia’s Defense … “North Korean troops experience mass casualties on Ukraine front lines, White House says” →

Brussels — NATO will bolster its military presence in the Baltic Sea after the suspected sabotage of an undersea power cable linking Finland and Estonia this week, the Western military alliance’s chief Mark Rutte said on Friday. On Christmas Day, the Estlink 2 submarine cable that carries electricity from Finland to Estonia was disconnected from the grid, just over a month after two telecommunications cables were severed in Swedish territorial waters in the Baltic. Finnish authorities on Thursday said they were investigating the oil tanker, Eagle S, that sailed from a Russian port, as part of a probe for “aggravated sabotage.” Finnish President Alexander Stubb said on Friday: “We’ve got the situation under control, and we have to continue to work together vigilantly to make sure that our critical infrastructure is not damaged by outsiders.” Officials suspect the tanker is part of the Russian “shadow fleet”, which refers to ships that transport Russian crude and oil products embargoed due to Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. The Eagle S vessel, which flies under the flag of the Cook Islands in the South Pacific, was en route to Port Said in Egypt. Police suspect that the oil tanker’s anchor might have damaged the power cable. Rutte said he spoke to President Stubb about Finland’s probe, adding in a post on X: “I expressed my full solidarity and support. NATO will enhance its military presence in the Baltic Sea.” Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur earlier on Friday said on X that the country began naval patrols to protect the undersea cable supplying electricity from Finland. In a separate statement he said Tallinn wanted to send a clear message it was ready to protect its power connections with Finland with military and non-military means. Rutte on Thursday promised NATO support to Estonia and Finland, and condemned attacks on critical infrastructure after speaking to Estonian Prime Minister Kristen Michal. More EU sanctions The European Union has also threatened further sanctions against Russia’s shadow fleet after this week’s incident. The bloc’s 27 member states agreed earlier this month to blacklist around 50 more oil tankers from Russia’s shadow fleet used to circumvent Western sanctions, taking the number targeted to around 80. Ukraine’s international backers have looked to curb funds going to the Kremlin’s war machine by imposing a price cap and restrictions on Russia’s key oil exports. To skirt the measures, Russia has resorted to using a … “NATO to boost military presence in Baltic after cables ‘sabotage’ 

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FRANKFURT, Germany — German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier on Friday ordered parliament dissolved and set new elections for Feb. 23 in the wake of the collapse of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s governing coalition.   Scholz lost a confidence vote on Dec. 16 and leads a minority government after his unpopular and notoriously rancorous three-party coalition collapsed on Nov. 6 when he fired his finance minister in a dispute over how to revitalize Germany’s stagnant economy.   Leaders of several major parties then agreed that a parliamentary election should be held on Feb. 23, seven months earlier than originally planned.  Since the post-World War II constitution doesn’t allow the Bundestag to dissolve itself, it was up to Steinmeier to decide whether to dissolve parliament and call an election. He had 21 days to make that decision. Once parliament is dissolved, the election must be held within 60 days.  In practice, the campaign is already well underway. Polls show Scholz’s party trailing the conservative opposition Union bloc led by Friedrich Merz. Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck of the environmentalist Greens, the remaining partner in Scholz’s government, is also bidding for the top job — though his party is further back. If recent polls hold up, the likely next government would be led by Merz as chancellor in coalition with at least one other party.   Key issues include immigration, how to get the sluggish economy going, and how best to aid Ukraine in its struggle against Russia.   The populist, anti-immigration Alternative for Germany, or AfD, which is polling strongly, has nominated Alice Weidel as its candidate for chancellor but has no chance of taking the job because other parties refuse to work with it.   Germany’s electoral system traditionally produces coalitions, and polls show no party anywhere near an absolute majority on its own. The election is expected to be followed by weeks of negotiations to form a new government.  It’s only the fourth time that the Bundestag has been dissolved ahead of schedule under Germany’s post-World War II constitution. It happened under Chancellor Willy Brandt in 1972, Helmut Kohl in 1982 and Gerhard Schroeder in 2005. Schroeder used the confidence vote to engineer an early election narrowly won by center-right challenger Angela Merkel.   …

STOCKHOLM — Estonia’s armed forces have launched a naval operation to protect the Estlink 1 undersea power cable in the Baltic Sea in response to the damage this week of a parallel electricity line, Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna said on Friday. Finland on Thursday seized a ship carrying Russian oil on suspicion the vessel caused an outage of the Estlink 2 undersea power cable which, like Estlink 1, connects Finland and Estonia, and that it also damaged four internet lines. Baltic Sea nations are on high alert for acts of sabotage following a string of outages of power cables, telecom links and gas pipelines since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, although subsea equipment is also subject to technical malfunction and accidents. Damage to subsea installations in the region has now become so frequent that it is difficult to believe this was caused merely by accident or poor seamanship, Tsahkna said on Thursday. Finnish investigators believe the seized ship — the Cook Island-registered ship, named as the Eagle S — may have caused the damage by dragging its anchor along the seabed, one of several such incidents in recent years. “If there is a threat to the critical undersea infrastructure in our region, there will also be a response,” Tsahkna said on social media X. The 658 megawatt (MW) Estlink 2 outage began at midday local time on Wednesday, leaving only the 358 MW Estlink 1 in operation between the two countries, operators Fingrid and Elering have said. Estonian public broadcaster ERR reported on Friday that the Baltic country had despatched a patrol ship, the Raju, to the waters where the Estlink 1 runs, and that the country hoped NATO allies would also deploy ships. …

SEOUL, SOUTH KOREA — South Korea’s spy agency said Friday it had confirmed that a North Korean soldier sent to back Russia’s war against Ukraine had been captured by Ukrainian forces. Pyongyang has deployed thousands of troops to reinforce Russian troops, including in the Kursk border region where Ukraine mounted a shock border incursion in August. “Through real-time information sharing with an allied country’s intelligence agency, it has been confirmed that one injured North Korean soldier has been captured,” South Korea’s National Intelligence Service said in a statement. The soldier was captured by the Ukrainian army, an intelligence source told AFP, adding that the location where he was seized was unknown. The first confirmation of the capture of a North Korean soldier came days after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Monday that nearly 3,000 North Korean soldiers had been “killed or wounded” so far. Seoul’s Joint Chiefs of Staff also said Monday that more than 1,000 North Korean soldiers have been killed or wounded. The JCS had also said that Pyongyang is reportedly “preparing for the rotation or additional deployment of soldiers” and supplying “240mm rocket launchers and 170mm self-propelled artillery” to the Russian army. Seoul’s military believes that North Korea was seeking to modernize its conventional warfare capabilities through combat experience gained in the Russia-Ukraine war. North Korean state media said Friday that Russian President Vladimir Putin sent a New Year’s message to North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, saying “the bilateral ties between our two countries have been elevated after our talks in June in Pyongyang.” A landmark defense pact went into effect in December after the two sides exchanged ratification documents. Putin hailed the deal in June as a “breakthrough document.” …

CHISINAU, MOLDOVA — The parliament in ex-Soviet Moldova, controlled by pro-Western lawmakers, approved a 10-year defense strategy on Thursday calling for increased military spending as part of a plan to join the European Union. The chamber’s pro-Russian opposition ridiculed the document as pointlessly directed against Moscow in view of Moldova’s small land mass and armed forces. The document, presented by Defense Minister Anatolie Nosatii, aims to boost military spending by 2030 to 1% of gross domestic product, with figures showing increases already being put into place. “The first step to implementing this was taken after the war in Ukraine started, by increasing budget resources for defense to 0.39% in 2022 and 0.55% in 2023,” the document said. One of Europe’s poorest countries, lying between Ukraine and EU member Romania, Moldova is a candidate to join the EU, with a membership date set for 2030. It is not considering joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) as the country’s neutral status is set down in its constitution. The document says Moldova’s neutral status requires it to boost partnerships with different countries and international organizations to strengthen its national defense.  Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 has jolted Moldova as drone fragments land on its territory and missiles aimed at Ukrainian targets pass through its airspace. Pro-Western President Maia Sandu, reelected to a second term last month, though by a smaller margin than anticipated, has accused Russia of trying to unseat her government. Members of the pro-Moscow Socialist Party dismissed the document as meaningless. “If, God forbid, we are subject to an attack from the direction of the Russian Federation, how long do you think Moldova will resist such aggression?” Socialist member Adrian Albu asked the minister. The document cites risks of the Ukraine conflict spreading, particularly around the Black Sea port of Odesa close to Moldova’s border. …

The Kremlin completed preparations to isolate the Russian segment of the internet from the rest of the World Wide Web, experts told VOA Russian. The Kremlin may implement severe internet restrictions in 2025, mirroring Iran’s experience of blocking undesirable web traffic. Experts note that YouTube speeds in Russia are 20% of the pre-war speeds, meaning that YouTube is essentially blocked in Russia. Click here for the full story in Russian. …

Both Russia and Ukraine expanded the use of drones in 2024 as a relatively cheap means of warfare that requires an opponent to use a much more expensive air defense system. Moscow and Kyiv acquired 1.5 million drones between them in the past year, with Ukraine hitting thousands of targets inside Russia in recent months. Click here for the full story in Russian.   …

FRANKFURT, GERMANY — Finnish authorities have detained a Russia-linked ship as they investigate whether it damaged a Baltic Sea power cable and several data cables, according to police and news media reports, in the latest incident involving disruption of key infrastructure. Finnish police and border guards boarded the vessel, the Eagle S, just past midnight Thursday and took over the command bridge, Helsinki Police Chief Jari Liukku said at a news conference. The vessel was intercepted in Finland’s exclusive economic zone and taken to Finnish territorial waters, police said. The Eagle S is flagged in the Cook Islands but was described by Finnish customs officials as a suspected part of Russia’s shadow fleet of fuel tankers, Yle television reported. Those are aging vessels with obscure ownership, acquired to evade Western sanctions over the war against Ukraine and operating without Western-regulated insurance. The Eagle S’s anchor is suspected of causing damage to the cable, Yle reported, relying on police statements. The Estlink-2 power cable, which brings electricity from Finland to Estonia across the Baltic Sea, went down just after noon on Wednesday. The incident follows damage to two data cables and the Nord Stream gas pipelines, both of which have been termed sabotage. The Estonian government was holding a meeting on the issue Thursday, Prime Minister Kristen Michal said on X. Two data cables — one running between Finland and Germany and the other between Lithuania and Sweden — were severed in November. Germany’s defense minister said officials had to assume the incident was “sabotage,” but he did not provide evidence or say who might have been responsible. The remark came during a speech in which he discussed hybrid warfare threats from Russia. The Nord Stream pipelines that once brought natural gas from Russia to Germany were damaged by underwater explosions in September 2022. Authorities have said the cause was sabotage and launched criminal probes. Estonian network operator Elering says there was enough spare capacity to meet power needs on the Estonian side, public broadcaster ERR said on its website. …

Azerbaijan on Thursday observed a nationwide day of mourning for the victims of the plane crash that killed 38 people and left all 29 survivors injured as speculation mounted about a possible cause of the disaster that remained unknown. Azerbaijan Airlines’ Embraer 190 was en route from Azerbaijan’s capital of Baku to the Russian city of Grozny in the North Caucasus on Wednesday when it was diverted for reasons yet unclear and crashed while making an attempt to land in Aktau in Kazakhstan after flying east across the Caspian Sea. The plane went down about 3 kilometers from Aktau. Cellphone footage circulating online appeared to show the aircraft making a steep descent before smashing into the ground in a fireball. Other footage showed part of its fuselage ripped away from the wings and the rest of the aircraft lying upside in the grass. On Thursday, national flags were lowered across Azerbaijan, traffic across the country stopped at noon, and signals were sounded from ships and trains as the country observed a nationwide moment of silence. Speaking at a news conference Wednesday, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev said that it was too soon to speculate on the reasons behind the crash, but said that the weather had forced the plane to change from its planned course. “The information provided to me is that the plane changed its course between Baku and Grozny due to worsening weather conditions and headed to Aktau airport, where it crashed upon landing,” he said. Russia’s civil aviation authority, Rosaviatsia, said that preliminary information indicated that the pilots diverted to Aktau after a bird strike led to an emergency on board. According to Kazakh officials, those aboard the plane included 42 Azerbaijani citizens, 16 Russian nationals, six Kazakhs and three Kyrgyzstan nationals. Russia’s Emergencies Ministry on Thursday flew nine Russian survivors to Moscow for treatment. As the official crash investigation started, theories abounded about a possible cause, with some commentators alleging that holes seen in the plane’s tail section possibly indicate that it could have come under fire from Russian air defense systems fending off a Ukrainian drone attack.  Ukrainian drones had previously attacked Grozny, the provincial capital of the Russian republic of Chechnya, and other regions in the country’s North Caucasus. Some Russian media claimed that another drone attack on Chechnya happened on Wednesday, although it wasn’t officially confirmed.  Osprey Flight Solutions, an aviation security firm based … “Azerbaijan observes day of mourning for air crash victims as speculation mounts about its cause” →

Moscow — A “terrorist act” sank the cargo ship that went down in international waters in the Mediterranean this week, the Russian state-owned company that owns the vessel said Wednesday. The Oboronlogistika company said it “thinks a targeted terrorist attack was committed on December 23, 2024, against the Ursa Major,” it said in a statement cited by Russian news agencies, without indicating who may have been behind the act or why. The ship sank in international waters off Spain in the early hours of Tuesday after having sent a distress call for help on Monday. “Three consecutive explosions” took place on the ship before it began taking on water, added the company, which belongs to the Russian defense ministry. Oboronlogistika did not say what evidence it had allowing it to conclude a terrorist attack sank the Ursa Major. Russian foreign ministry’s crisis unit said on Telegram on Tuesday that the ship sank “after an explosion in the engine room.” It added that out of the 16 Russian crew members on board, 14 had been rescued and taken to the Spanish port of Cartagena and two were missing. The ship sent a distress call Monday morning from off the coast of southeastern Spain in bad weather, reporting it was listing and sailors had launched a lifeboat, Spain’s sea rescue service said in a statement. Spain sent out a helicopter and rescue boats and took the survivors to port, the service said.  A Russian warship then arrived and took charge of the rescue operation since the ship was between Spanish and Algerian waters, after which the Ursa Major sank overnight. The Ursa Major is listed on MarineTraffic.com as a 124.7-meter long general cargo ship. It is owned by a subsidiary of Russia’s Oboronlogistika, which belongs to the defense ministry and also provides civilian transport and logistics, the Russian foreign ministry said. The Ursa Major was sailing from the Russian city of Saint Petersburg to Vladivostok in Russia’s Far East. Last week Oboronlogistika issued a press release with photos of the ship in port, saying it was to transport a particularly large and heavy load: cranes each weighing 380 tons and hatch covers for icebreakers each weighing 45 tons to Vladivostok. The United States in 2022 imposed sanctions on Oboronlogistika and ships including the Ursa Major for providing “transportation services…for the delivery of cargo to Russian-occupied Crimea”.  This means any U.S. organization dealing with … “Russia says cargo ship blast was ‘terrorist attack’ “ →