France’s latest prime minister, Francois Bayrou, gets to work this week to form a new cabinet, push a stopgap budget bill and — more precariously — scout for support for longer-term budget legislation to tackle the country’s fiscal woes — a move that led to his predecessor’s downfall.
The task and stakes are enormous for the 73-year-old centrist, a veteran politician and longtime mayor of the southwestern town of Pau. Picked by French President Emmanuel Macron Friday, Bayrou is the country’s fourth prime minister this year — and he faces a squabbling, deeply divided lower house anchored by powerful leftist and far right blocks.
Farmers, teachers, hospital staff and rail workers count among thousands who have taken to the streets in recent months over agricultural imports, labor issues, and other grievances.
France’s disarray is also a worry for the European Union, facing Russian gains in Ukraine, and the risk of a more fractious transatlantic relationship with the incoming Trump administration.
“Nothing suggests he’ll last longer or fare better than the others,” France’s leading Le Monde newspaper said in editorial of Bayrou.
The most immediate emergency lies in France’s Indian Ocean territory of Mayotte, where Cyclone Chido has wreaked widespread devastation, causing hundreds and possibly thousands of deaths, French authorities say. The acting interior minister, Bruno Retailleau, was heading to Mayotte on Monday.
Head of the small MoDem or Democratic Freedom party that is part of Macron’s centrist alliance, Bayrou acknowledges he faces a “Himalaya” of difficulties ahead. France’s budget deficit is estimated at more than six percent of its GDP — double the EU limit — and the country shoulders a sizable debt. Hours after Bayrou’s nomination, Moody’s rating agency downgraded France’s credit rating to Aa3, citing “political fragmentation” as a reason.
“My first mission is to be a builder or, failing that, a repairer,” Bayrou told La Tribune Dimanche weekly, in an interview published Sunday.
The stakes are also high for Macron, who emerges severely weakened after a catastrophic political year. The French president gambled on snap legislative elections earlier this year, after the far-right National Rally party topped a June European Parliament vote. He saw his centrist coalition emerging as the weakest bloc in France’s National Assembly, behind a leftist alliance and the National Rally.
Risk for Europe
So far, Macron has resisted calls to step down, insisting he will serve out his term that ends in 2027. But analysts suggest he could become a lame-duck president — leading the EU’s second-biggest power, at a difficult time for the bloc. A strong champion of Ukraine, Macron has also long pushed the bloc to beef up its defense in what he calls “strategic autonomy.”
Fellow EU heavyweight Germany is also dealing with political uncertainty, with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz facing a no-confidence vote in parliament Monday and the possibility of early elections in February.
Prolonged turmoil in France could affect the EU’s “capacity to demonstrate unity and leadership,” wrote analysts Camille Grand, Camille Lons and Pawel Zerka of the European Council on Foreign Relations think tank. “Especially,” they added, “in the face of heightened threats to EU security policy posed by Russian president Vladimir Putin and America’s president-elect, Donald Trump.”
With France “mired in domestic issues,” the analysts added, “other European countries will need to show political creativity and readiness to take ambitious action,” including developing a plan to support Ukraine in the weeks remaining before Trump takes office.
A three-time presidential candidate, who served as education minister in the 1990s, Bayrou succeeds conservative Michel Barnier. Barnier was ousted earlier this month in a no-confidence motion in France’s lower house, after ramming through a budget bill without a vote. The move — by an unlikely front of leftist and far right lawmakers — made Barnier the country’s shortest-serving prime minister in modern history, lasting only three months.
Bayrou begins meeting Monday with political parties, starting with the powerful far right National Rally, which has the most seats in parliament. So far, the Rally counts among several key parties taking a ‘wait-and-see’ approach, albeit setting out red lines that will make it difficult for Bayrou to find compromise.
New polls found most French are underwhelmed by the latest political transition. More than two-thirds said they lack confidence in Bayrou’s ability to bring stability to the country, according to an Elabe survey. A separate IFOP poll found just one-fifth support Macron — the president’s lowest popularity rating to date.
France’s far left is among the most critical of Bayrou. France Unbowed party lawmaker, Eric Coquerel, said he expected “nothing” from the new prime minister. The party threatens another no-confidence motion, but so far lacks the votes to topple Bayrou.
“It’s up to him to prove this mission impossible is custom made for him,” La Tribune Dimanche wrote in an editorial of Bayrou.
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